For those of us who would truly prefer an uneventful – make that no hurricanes - season, the news is good. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just revised their hurricane season predictions.
NOAA Revises Predictions
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is now predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season likelihood to 60%, up from 25% in May. The sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are much cooler than average. Combined with stronger wind shear, drier air, and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes.
“There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
For the entire season, which ends November 30, NOAA predicts a total of 9-13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) of which 4-7 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). So far, the season has seen four named storms, including two hurricanes.
Since landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, these predictions are for overall seasonal activity and are not a landfall forecast.
“Today’s updated outlook is a reminder that we are entering the height of hurricane season and everyone needs to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. “Now is the time to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update your insurance and have a preparedness plan. Don’t let down your guard, late season storms are always a possibility, always keep your plans updated.”
As we move into peak hurricane season, we would like to remind you to get your hurricane preparedness plans in place. The Department of Homeland Security has a great Hurricane Preparedness Plan available, click here.
Dean and Draper
We want to help you plan for this year’s Hurricane Season, so we invite you to download the Homeland Security Hurricane Preparedness Plan that we mentioned above. If you have questions about your insurance, we have answers.
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