South Texas Hurricane Forecast 2024: Is Your Business & Home Prepared?

It’s time to make sure your hurricane preparations are in order as one of the leading hurricane forecasters just issued a warning that the 2024 season could have the highest number of hurricanes ever recorded.

“Buckle up and hunker down: An "extremely active" hurricane season is likely, top forecasters from Colorado State University (CSU) announced Thursday,” reported USA Today on April 4. “In fact, the forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State since the team began releasing predictions in 1995.”

KXAN reported that there is a 54 percent chance a hurricane will strike the Texas coast and a 25 percent chance a major hurricane will strike the Texas coast this hurricane season.

Almost Twice the Average Number of Named Storms Predicted This Year

The CSU Forecast for 2024 Hurricane Activity is calling for almost double the average number of yearly named storms.

“We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active,” said the forecasters, citing record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes this year.

CSU hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach told USA Today “We’re coming out with a very aggressive forecast: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. And even that is so undercutting all the model guidance."

The CSU predictions along with the average for 1991-2020 for each category:

• Named Storms: 23 (average 14.4)
• Named Storm Days: 115 (average 69.4)
• Hurricanes: 11 (average 7.2)
• Hurricane Days: 45 (average 27.0)
• Major Hurricanes: 5 (average 3.2)
• Major Hurricane Days: 13 (average 7.4)
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)*: 210 (average 123)
• ACE West of 60 Degrees Longitude: 125 (average 73)

*ACE is a measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence.

The Science Behind This Year’s Predicted Extreme Hurricane Season

Here’s a peak behind the science that fuels the prediction of an active hurricane season in 2024:

• Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions.
• Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.
• A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.

“This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” said the forecasters. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

Possible Landfalls for 2024 Hurricanes

The CSU forecast also includes the hurricane landfalling probability for 2024:

• 62% percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43 percent).
• 34 percent for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21 percent).
• 42 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27 percent).
• 66 percent for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47 percent)

The forecast also shows the probability of at least one named storm, hurricane, and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of each coastal state:

• Texas: 80 percent named storm; 54 percent hurricane; 25 percent major hurricane.
• Alabama: 78 percent; 43 percent; 14 percent.
• Connecticut: 35 percent; 13 percent; 2 percent.
• Delaware: 35 percent; 10 percent; 1 percent.
• Florida: 96 percent; 75 percent; 44 percent.
• Georgia: 82 percent; 46 percent; 10 percent.
• Louisiana: 84 percent: 56 percent; 23 percent.
• Maine: 34 percent; 11 percent; 2 percent.
• Maryland: 47 percent; 18 percent; 1 percent.
• Massachusetts: 49 percent; 23 percent; 5 percent.
• Mississippi: 72 percent; 43 percent; 13 percent.
• New Hampshire: 29 percent; 9 percent; 2 percent.
• New Jersey: 35 percent; 11 percent; 1 percent.
• New York: 41 percent; 16 percent; 4 percent.
• North Carolina: 85 percent; 56 percent; 13 percent.
• Rhode Island: 32 percent; 13 percent; 2 percent.
• South Carolina: 76 percent; 44 percent; 14 percent.
• Virginia: 65 percent; 31 percent; 2 percent.

Storm Protection: Overview of Commercial Flood Insurance

Flooding is a real and severe danger for homes and businesses located in low-lying Houston and throughout Texas and the Gulf Coast regions.

Flood insurance is not included in general liability insurance and often is excluded from property policies, so many homeowners and business owners may not be protected from hurricanes and other storms that bring flooding events.

“At Dean & Draper, our goal is to ensure your business is fully protected against all threats, including operating within a flood zone,” says Kyle Dean, President & CEO of Dean & Draper.

Commercial flood insurance can cover issues related to:

• Damages to the building itself as well as its contents, including furniture, machinery, and electronics.
• Clean-up and repairs that are necessary after the flood has subsided. This includes debris removal, floor cleaning, re-painting, and more.

Flood insurance is available from the federal government’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

“Flood insurance covers damage to your building and contents caused by flood. This includes losses resulting from water overflowing rivers or streams, heavy or prolonged rain, storm surge, snow melt, blocked storm drainage systems, broken dams or levees, or other similar causes,” explains the Insurance Information Institute (III). “To be considered a flood, waters must cover at least two acres or affect two properties. Generally, if water comes from above—for instance from rain or melting snow overflowing gutters and leaking onto your inventory—you’ll be covered by your standard commercial property insurance.”

The III cautions that flood insurance will typically not cover property outside your building such as landscaping and septic systems. Damage to business vehicles must be protected under your business vehicle insurance and financial losses caused by business interruption or loss of use of insured property must be covered under additional coverage.

Contact Dean and Draper today to find the right commercial flood insurance coverage from NFIP or private insurers to protect your valuable assets.

The recommendation(s), advice, and contents of this material are provided for informational purposes only and do not purport to address every possible legal obligation, hazard, code violation, loss potential, or exception to good practice. Dean & Draper Insurance Agency specifically disclaims any warranty or representation that acceptance of any recommendations or advice contained herein will make any premises, property, or operation safe or in compliance with any law or regulation. Under no circumstances should this material or your acceptance of any recommendations or advice contained herein be construed as establishing the existence or availability of any insurance coverage with Dean & Draper Insurance Agency. By providing this information to you, Dean & Draper Insurance Agency does not assume (and specifically disclaims) any duty, undertaking, or responsibility to you.  The decision to accept or implement any recommendation(s) or advice contained in this material must be made by you.