We thought you might be interested in the Colorado State University (CSU) researchers’ predictions about the 2019 Hurricane Season.
First, CSU is projecting a slightly below average number of storms in 2019. The relatively high likelihood of a weak El Nino along with the Atlantic sea surface temperatures that are slightly below long-term average are both inhibiting factors for hurricane activity.
A weak El Niño has recently developed in the tropical Pacific. CSU anticipates that these weak El Niño conditions are likely to persist through the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.
The tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than normal right now. Colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic provide less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development.
13 Named Storms
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers expect 5 to become hurricanes and 2 to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
Probability of Major Hurricanes Making Landfall
- 48 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)
- 28 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)
- 28 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)
- 39 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent)
The team predicts that 2019 hurricane activity will be about 75 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2018’s hurricane activity was about 120 percent of the average season. This is the 36th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued their Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast.
Dean and Draper
We are encouraged by the CSU predictions. Hopefully this Hurricane Season will be mild. When you have questions about your insurance please call us.
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Source: Colorado State University