The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be near-normal, but insurance providers are keeping a close eye on mixed signals including some that are conducive to the development of strong storms.
The near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year issued by NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center calls for the following between June 1 and November 30:
This forecast is balanced upon two competing factors: one that typically leads to less activity (El Niño weather pattern) and one that typically leads to more activity (warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures).
Insurance Business magazine reports that the 2023 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook from Acrisure Re says that “the forecasted Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is anticipated to be warmer than the previous year, particularly in the Main Development Region (MDR), implying a potential increase in hurricane activity across the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions. Conversely, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be in a moderate to strong El Niño phase, which could result in strong vertical wind shear and suppressed hurricane activity.”
NOAA issued its 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook in May and issued a 70 percent confidence of the following ranges:
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year's overall forecast for a near-normal season,” said a NOAA release.
Ming Li, global head of catastrophe modeling at Acrisure Re, concurs with NOAA’s predictions.
“Our statistical and dynamic models, as well as our review of key variables, suggest a near-average hurricane season for 2023,” Li told Insurance Business. “However, despite the forecast, the hurricane season can be defined by one storm. There is a level of uncertainty given the competing nature of the predicted Atlantic and Pacific SST conditions, the rate of development of El Niño, and the recent lack of forecast verification for Atlantic SSTs.”
After several years of above-average hurricane seasons – coinciding with the La Niña weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean – the return of the El Niño weather pattern for the first time in four years has forecasters hopeful of less activity.
“After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Niño to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity,” said the NOAA release.
The Weather Channel reported that on June 8, “NOAA confirmed that after months of anticipation, an early El Niño finally reclaimed its throne over the Pacific Ocean. Its advisory added that the waters under the ocean surface were at their fourth warmest May value since 1979, suggesting a strong El Niño waiting in the wings.”
El Niño (meaning Little Boy in Spanish) is a periodic warming of a strip of water straddling the equator in the Pacific Ocean, according to the Weather Channel. It is one of the two phases of a climate pattern called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
“During El Niño, warm water builds up in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In the other phase, called La Niña (meaning Little Girl in Spanish), cold water in the central and eastern Pacific Oceans rises to the surface,” explains the Weather Channel. “This alternating presence of warm and cold water in this region triggers different yet significant impacts on weather patterns around the world.”
During El Niño, the jet stream is shifted southward and a usually deep trough builds over the central United States.
“El Niño episodes generally mean wetter and cooler weather during the winter and spring for the Deep South,” says the National Weather Service. “El Niño events generally suppress Atlantic hurricane activity with fewer hurricanes than normal in the Atlantic basin during the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, often sparing the Gulf Coast states from hurricanes and their associated destruction.”
While El Niño is good news, there is some bad news as there appear to be favorable conditions for storms in the tropical Atlantic Basin.
“Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development,” explains NOAA. “These factors are part of the longer term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development — known as the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes — which have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.”
Even a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season could result in more than a half dozen hurricanes, all with the potential to disrupt lives and risk property.
“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell.
2023 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
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